Critical minerals supply map redrawn: US copper expansion beyond 2030, tungsten gap nears fourfold

Global critical mineral supply is diverging faster along three lines: policy, project execution and commodity-specific prices. The US copper expansion blueprint points beyond 2030, tungsten has formed a nearly fourfold regional price gap due to export restrictions, and rare earth, lithium, potash and diamond companies face their own project progress, price expectations and operational risks.

US copper expansion: large potential, slow delivery

JPMorgan estimates that new projects and expansions could more than double US annual mined copper production, adding about 1.3 million tonnes of annual capacity, the third-largest potential supply increase globally after Chile and Argentina. However, the bank judges that most of this capacity is unlikely to come online until after 2030. US copper output has halved over the past 30 years to about 1 million tonnes per year, and its global share has fallen from about 50% in 1900 to less than 5% today. ^[1]

At project level, the Resolution copper mine in Arizona, a joint venture between Rio Tinto and BHP, accounts for about half of the additional capacity identified by JPMorgan. It could produce about 18 million tonnes of copper over a 40-year mine life, and at full production could meet as much as 25% of US copper demand, but permitting and technical studies are still incomplete, with production no earlier than 2030. Cost is also a constraint: US copper projects require about $28,000 per tonne of annual capacity, above the global average of $26,000; Freeport-McMoRan, through brownfield expansions, has potential to add more than 250,000 tonnes per year. ^[1]

Tungsten prices split: policy divides the market into two price systems

A MetalMiner report shows that the Rotterdam APT price was $278.22/kg in October 2026, while the China ex-works price was $74.43/kg, with the former about 3.74 times the latter, far above the 1.24 times average from September 2021 to June 2025. China's tungsten export licensing introduced in February 2025, US tariffs and measures for scrap tungsten allocation are making the market increasingly stratified by regulatory compliance, geographic availability and processing capacity. ^[6]

The price trajectory shows the split widening: Rotterdam APT rose from an average of $34.60/kg in February 2025 to an average of $290.06/kg in September 2026, while the China ex-works price rose from $28.92/kg to $86.02/kg over the same period. The US tungsten tariff rose from about 4% in 2015-2024 to 16.2% in December 2025, while DFARS procurement restrictions effective January 1, 2027 may further reshape sourcing and traceability requirements. ^[6]

Rare earth project: lab recovery above old assumption

Rare Earths Americas announced that its Alpha ionic adsorption clay rare earth project in Bahia, Brazil, achieved approximately 40% rare earth leach recovery excluding cerium in SGS Geosol laboratory testing, above the 27% assumption in the technical report summary, equivalent to a 48% relative improvement under different test conditions. Alpha has an inferred resource of 202 million tonnes at 1,520 ppm TREO (1,000 ppm TREO cut-off), with neodymium-praseodymium at about 21% of the TREO basket and dysprosium-terbium at about 3%. ^[4]

The company said Alpha's initial assessment is more than 80% complete and targeted for release in the first quarter of 2027; in the tested composite, neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium represented about 37% of rare earth content excluding cerium, and heavy rare earths about 29%. On the day of the announcement, REA shares closed down 5% in New York, with a market value of $150.7 million. ^[4]

Lithium price outlook: Citi cuts by 40%

Citi cut its lithium price forecasts through the end of 2028 by 40% and expects the lithium market to turn to surplus. The adjustment covers the forecast period through end-2028, with the core judgment that the market will shift to surplus; against weaker expectations for battery raw material demand, the medium-term center for lithium prices has been significantly lowered, and lithium miners need to weigh expansion and cash flow more carefully. ^[3]

Potash: earthquake does not disrupt output, results and grades under pressure

On November 3, 2025, a magnitude 3.4 earthquake occurred near Mosaic's Esterhazy potash operations in Saskatchewan, Canada, with the epicenter about nine kilometres from Esterhazy. The company said workers felt the tremor in a mined-out section of the K3 underground mine, but all personnel were safe and inspections were completed, with no production impact expected; mining-induced seismic activity is not uncommon in the area, and facilities are designed with seismic loads in mind. ^[2]

Third-quarter results released the same day showed Mosaic had a net loss of $72 million (loss of 23 cents per share), compared with net income of $411 million ($1.29 per share) a year earlier; revenue fell about 10% to $3.1 billion, and adjusted EBITDA fell from $806 million to $324 million. Potash segment sales fell from $695 million to $643 million, and volumes fell from 2.3 million tonnes to 2.1 million tonnes; abnormal geological conditions at Esterhazy lowered ore grades, prompting the company to cut its 2026 potash production forecast to 8.6 million tonnes, while its long-term target remains above 9 million tonnes. ^[2]

Diamonds: large stones support prices, shares still fall

Gem Diamonds raised its 2026 production and sales guidance, with the production target increased from 75,000-78,000 carats to 78,000-80,000 carats, and the sales target from 77,000-80,000 carats to 79,000-81,000 carats. Third-quarter revenue rose 35% year on year to $34.8 million; although sales volume fell 22% to 17,899 carats, the average realized price rose 73% to $1,945 per carat. ^[5]

High-priced large stones were the core support: four diamonds sold for more than $1 million each, contributing a combined $22.2 million, or about 64% of quarterly revenue, including the 347-carat Lesotho Jubilee. Recoveries at the Letšeng mine fell 13% to 19,299 carats, but the mine still recovered three diamonds over 100 carats in the quarter and six in total year to date. Despite improved operating data, the company's shares fell 14.2% to 12.44 pence in London afternoon trading that day, with a market value of £17.4 million ($23.5 million). ^[5]

Outlook: supply fragmentation and project execution risk

From copper, tungsten, rare earths, lithium, potash to diamonds, the operating divergence of mining companies increasingly depends on resource endowment, permitting progress, trade policy and commodity-specific prices, rather than a single global supply-demand gap. US copper expansion and rare earth projects show that new supply is mostly concentrated around 2030, while the tungsten market has already formed an immediate price gap due to policy restrictions; potash geological disturbance and diamond reliance on large stones show that operational risks can still be independent of the price cycle. Going forward, watch US copper project permitting and capex pace, tungsten stockpiling and sourcing adjustments before the 2027 DFARS node, and the transmission of the rare earth initial assessment and lithium price cuts to miners' investment decisions. ^[1][6][4][3]