Dollar weakness lifts spot gold back above $4,000; silver surges as mining permit changes draw focus

A weaker dollar after the U.S. midterm elections has rekindled bullish sentiment in precious metals, lifting spot gold nearly 3% on Wednesday back above $4,000/oz, with silver also surging. At the same time, mining policy and permitting changes from Colombia to Canada are adding new variables to the outlook for gold supply. ^[1][3][4]

Dollar and election trading push gold back to $4,000

Spot gold (XAU/USD) rallied nearly 3% on Wednesday to $4,047/oz, after earlier falling to an intraday low of $3,919/oz. The move was attributed to a weaker dollar following the U.S. midterm elections: Democrats swept the contests, the dollar index fell, and gold reclaimed the $4,000/oz mark. Short-term traders now await Friday's October nonfarm payrolls data, with gold's swings likely to hinge on employment and rate expectations. ^[1]

The midterm results did more than move the dollar; they also changed gold's macro narrative. Democrats won the House and Senate, setting up divided government from January, and investors are assessing whether Trump's fiscal agenda will be constrained. TD Securities strategists Ryan McKay and Bart Melek said in a Wednesday report that a constrained fiscal agenda could limit further spending, help push down the dollar and longer-term Treasury yields, and lift gold back above $4,000/oz. The bank also said gold and copper face different pressures; copper weakened at one point on expected scrutiny of AI data-center construction, then rebounded on tight physical supply in China and elsewhere. ^[4]

Silver surges, $55 resistance comes into view

Silver (XAG/USD) jumped almost $3 on Wednesday, a gain of close to 5.50%, as traders also digested the U.S. midterm election results. Silver's advance was clearly larger than gold's, signaling a recovery in risk appetite across precious metals; on the technical side, with the relative strength index (RSI) recovering, the $55/oz resistance level has become a market focus. If the dollar remains weak, silver may continue to show more elasticity than gold, though its swings are usually larger. ^[3]

Washington political shift clouds mining regulatory outlook

Changes in Washington have more direct implications for mining. With Democrats controlling Congress, Trump's mining and energy agenda will face stricter scrutiny, including regulation of data-center construction, closer review of federal investments, and questions over the terms of government stakes in mining companies. BMO and Wood Mackenzie believe permitting reform may still be an area of bipartisan common ground on lowering power costs, but how policy is legislated and implemented remains a risk; Wood Mackenzie's David Brown warned that entrenched partisanship could cause policy stagnation and regulatory confusion. Senior Democrats had already asked the Government Accountability Office to investigate risk assessments for federal investments, protection of taxpayer funds, and permitting decisions involving companies with government shareholdings. ^[4]

Colombia scraps mining restrictions, billions in investment up for reassessment

On Oct. 22, Colombia repealed 15 special mining districts covering 5.3 million hectares, or nearly 5% of the country's territory; the Agriculture Ministry also revoked Food Production Protection Areas (APPA) in four regions in October. The restrictions were imposed under former President Gustavo Petro's government, and their removal could reopen 11 departments—Antioquia, Boyacá, Cauca, Cesar, Chocó, Córdoba, Huila, La Guajira, Nariño, Norte de Santander and Valle de Cauca—as well as areas along the Pacific coast to exploration. Juan Camilo Nariño, president of the Colombian Mining Association (ACM), estimates that a more supportive investment climate could unlock $4.7 billion in mine construction investment, attract $350 million a year in exploration spending, and support industry growth of as much as 10% a year. ^[5]

Removing the designations does not automatically authorize mining, however. Companies must still comply with environmental regulations, permitting requirements and land-use restrictions; the government said the original policies were ineffective, lacked alternatives for mining-dependent communities, created legal uncertainty and involved insufficient consultation with regional authorities. Law firm Holland & Knight believes the move can restore regulatory certainty for mining companies, investors and communities and create opportunities to reassess previously constrained projects. ^[5]

B2Gold's Gramalote project faces key permitting hearing

Colombia's environmental regulator will hold a public hearing on Nov. 10 on B2Gold's Gramalote gold project, and the National Environmental Licensing Authority (ANLA) will consider whether to approve changes to the 2015 environmental permit. The project is in Antioquia and has estimated initial capital costs of $740 million; B2Gold submitted its application in April 2026 and has since scaled down the project, proposing to relocate the processing plant and some supporting infrastructure. ANLA has briefed more than 500 residents of San Roque and Yolombó, the municipalities near the project, and the hearing will allow communities and other stakeholders to raise concerns before the regulator decides. ^[2]

Under the company's 2025 feasibility study, Gramalote has an 11-year mine life and the processing plant is expected to operate for 13 years; average annual gold production is forecast at 227,000 oz in the first five years and 177,000 oz over the full operating period. Indicated resources are 155.6 million tonnes at 0.70 g/t, containing about 3.52 million oz of gold; inferred resources are 120.9 million tonnes at 0.52 g/t, containing about 2 million oz. The company expects environmental approval in January 2027, plans to start construction the following month, and targets production by late 2029; life-of-mine post-construction capital expenditure is estimated at $444 million, including $376 million in sustaining capital. B2Gold became sole owner after acquiring AngloGold Ashanti's 50% interest in 2023. ^[2]

Project progress comes as Colombia tries to reverse a sharp decline in foreign mining investment. According to the Ministry of Mines and Energy, foreign mining investment in Colombia fell to $178 million in 2025 from $1.51 billion in 2022, a drop of 88%. The government's economic rescue bill submitted to Congress on Oct. 29 includes the RUGE regime aimed at improving conditions for private investment; Deputy Mining Minister Luis Madriñán said mining needs to grow by at least 10% to support the government's 6% economic growth target. ^[2]

St Barbara restarts Nova Scotia gold operations as environmental review adds uncertainty

St Barbara's gold operations in Nova Scotia, Canada, are due to resume this week, but a new environmental assessment has cast a shadow over the company's expansion plans. The restart means existing mine operations are back on track, while the new assessment may affect the timing and scope of approvals for future expansion; with spot gold back above $4,000/oz, whether miners can seize the price window to advance expansions still depends on permitting progress. ^[1][6]

Outlook: dollar, policy and permits shape gold supply-demand narrative

The common thread is that gold's short-term price is driven by the dollar and fiscal expectations, while medium-term supply is shaped by mining policy, environmental permits and the pace of project restarts. Key items to watch include Friday's October nonfarm payrolls data and its impact on the dollar and rate expectations, B2Gold's Gramalote hearing on Nov. 10 and the expected January 2027 environmental approval, project reassessments after Colombia's repeal of mining restrictions, and progress on St Barbara's new environmental assessment. ^[1][2][5][6]