OpenAI revenue miss hits AI stocks, Firmus pulls IPO, US deficit nears $2 trillion

Around October 9, the main thread in global markets shifted from one-way bets on AI to reassessing its returns and financing costs: OpenAI's annualized revenue is about $50 billion, below the near-$70 billion previously reported by some media, putting chip stocks and data center assets under pressure; meanwhile, Nvidia-backed Firmus withdrew its Australian IPO, Middle East conflict pushed oil prices higher, and the US fiscal 2026 deficit rose to $1.993 trillion, with interest expense topping $1.1 trillion. Capital is still chasing AI, but it prefers large tech companies with sound balance sheets; Apple, meanwhile, is preparing to kick off a new hardware cycle with its first touchscreen MacBook and smart home products.

OpenAI revenue miss hits AI trade

On October 8-9, reports that OpenAI's actual revenue was far below expectations rekindled doubts about AI investment returns. Wallstreetcn noted that OpenAI's annualized revenue based on current performance is about $50 billion, while expected figures previously reported by some media were close to $70 billion, a gap of about $20 billion^[3][5]. The news quickly spread across the entire tech supply chain. On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed down 0.47% at 7,765.36, the Nasdaq fell 1.25% to 27,193.34, and the Dow rose 0.10% to 51,231.64; the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4% in one day, its worst performance since July; the chip stock index fell 3.4% in one day^[5]. Nvidia fell about 3% that day, Oracle fell 5.58%, Micron fell 4.79%, and AMD, Broadcom, Intel and Super Micro fell between 4% and 6%; Nebius and CoreWeave fell more than 7%, Applied Optoelectronics plunged 13%, and Coherent fell 9.62%^[5]. Analysts said the shock was not just in the numbers themselves, but more importantly shook the core logic underpinning the narrative of massive AI capex: whether end demand for AI is really that strong. Goldman Sachs trading desk also noted disappointing results from Samsung and TSMC, and plans by Oracle and Broadcom to raise further funds through the bond market, adding capital pressure^[5].

Data center IPO window narrows: Firmus pulls Australian listing

Australian data center operator Firmus Grid, after meeting a cold reception from investors in public markets, announced it was withdrawing its plan to list on the ASX and turning to private financing, becoming the second mega data center IPO to fail in three weeks^[2]. The company had originally planned to raise up to $5.5 billion, priced at A$11 per share, implying a valuation of about A$43.7 billion ($30.4 billion); it later cut the issue price to A$8, about 25% below the range, and tried to hold the floor at A$8.25; ultimately it withdrew citing recent market volatility and current market conditions^[2]. Shares of affiliate Maas Group plunged as much as 30% intraday, the largest single-day drop on record^[2]. In February this year, Firmus obtained $10 billion in debt financing led by Blackstone and Coatue; in April it was valued at $5.5 billion; in August a $2 billion financing round involving Nvidia, Coatue, Blackstone and Jane Street raised its valuation to $10.5 billion; less than two months later, the IPO asked public market investors to come in at a valuation three times the August financing price^[2]. According to Breakingviews, of a roughly 1 GW pipeline, actual built capacity is only 42 MW, about 4%; Morningstar estimates its debt at about $30 billion, about six times its own earnings forecast, and at A$8.25 the equity value is about $23 billion, about $7 billion less than debt^[2]. Earlier, SoftBank-owned SB Energy also paused its IPO roadshow in late September, due to additional SEC inquiries and investor concerns about a valuation of about $60 billion and heavy reliance on a single customer, OpenAI^[2].

Energy bottleneck of AI compute expansion: Oracle trucks natural gas

To deliver AI data centers on time, Oracle is using trucks to transport compressed natural gas to keep several projects under construction and operating, avoiding the time loss from pipeline infrastructure delays^[6]. On October 8, Bloomberg reported that this strategy has been implemented in Utah and Texas and is being considered for a key project in New Mexico. At a data center project on the outskirts of Salt Lake City, Oracle has used trucked gas to keep it going for more than a year, with service provided by Certarus, a unit of Superior Plus; in Shackelford County, Texas, a data center campus built for OpenAI uses a VoltaGrid LLC solution^[6]. The pressure is most concentrated at a project codenamed Project Jupiter: pipeline operator Energy Transfer LP was forced to reroute after its original route was rejected by New Mexico regulators, and the expected in-service date was pushed from originally this summer to next year; Oracle last month issued a force majeure notice to the project developer^[6]. On costs, Jack Weixel, senior director of energy analytics at East Daley Analytics, estimates that truck-delivered compressed natural gas is about four times the price of natural gas at major pipeline hubs; SemiAnalysis analyst Ellie Holbrook calculates that if compressed natural gas trucks supplied 100 MW of power to Project Jupiter, that would be only about 4% of the project's total planned capacity of 2.45 GW, and each large truck could support only about 40 minutes of power supply, meaning dozens of truck deliveries per day would be needed without interruption^[6]. Oracle shares closed down 5.5% at $135.69 on Thursday, the biggest one-day drop since July 16; Bloom Energy, which has a fuel cell power cooperation with Oracle, tumbled more than 6% the same day^[6].

US fiscal 2026 deficit nears $2 trillion, interest expense becomes biggest variable

US Congressional Budget Office data show that for fiscal 2026, which ended September 30, the US federal budget deficit rose to $1.993 trillion, up 12% year-on-year, the highest since 2021; federal spending reached $7.4 trillion, up 6%, while federal revenue was $5.4 trillion, up only 3%^[1]. According to The Wall Street Journal, the deficit as a share of GDP is expected to exceed 6%, above 5.8% in fiscal 2025; historically, such a level usually appears only during recessions or wars, while the US economy has now been in an expansion cycle for more than six years^[1]. Net interest expense became the biggest variable: in fiscal 2026, US net interest expense exceeded $1.1 trillion, up $11.5 billion, or 11% year-on-year; this single increment contributed more than half of the year's deficit widening; interest expense has exceeded defense spending and also Medicare spending, and accounts for more than one-fifth of all tax revenue^[1]. Corporate income tax revenue fell $70 billion, or 16%, partly because Congress gave companies retroactive R&D tax breaks and expanded accelerated depreciation deductions for factories and equipment, including data center servers; federal debt held by the public has exceeded 100% of GDP and is approaching the post-World War II historical peak^[1]. Former CBO director Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Bipartisan Policy Center's Shai Akabas, Senate Budget Committee Chairman Ron Johnson, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Democratic Representative Brendan Boyle have all expressed concerns or put forward proposals on the deficit; the future fiscal path will depend to a large extent on the midterm election results^[1].

Middle East conflict and oil: Hormuz flows fall to months-low

Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disrupted oil transport in the Gulf pushed oil prices sharply higher. US media reported that Trump is considering a new strike on Iran before the midterms; Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked two Saudi airports, killing 3 people, and the Saudi-led coalition immediately announced it destroyed 82 Houthi targets inside Yemen; the UK Maritime Trade Operations office reported that a tanker was hit by multiple projectiles off northwest Qatar and there were casualties^[5]. Data from Belgian research firm Kpler show that on October 6, only 7 tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the lowest since July 23; Hurricane Isaias in the US Gulf added another disruption, with Shell and Chevron and other companies cutting offshore production^[5]. With multiple headlines overlapping, WTI crude oil futures rose by more than 4% at one point, and the physical oil benchmark Brent spot price approached wartime highs; that day, the daily charter rate for a very large crude carrier shipping oil from the Middle East to China reached $1.4 million, a record high^[5]. Trump then said on social media that the US was having productive discussions with Iran and would not attack Iran before the midterm elections; oil prices briefly fell sharply, giving back gains, but did not end lower^[5]. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the supply flexibility buffer has become alarmingly thin; Global Risk Management chief analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen said the whole narrative that Strait of Hormuz flows had recovered has been completely overturned^[5]. US Treasury yields first rose then fell, with the 10-year down 5 basis points to 5.227%, the 30-year down 5.9 basis points to 5.602%, and the 2-year down 1.3 basis points to 4.751%; gold rose 0.6% to $4,134.68 an ounce, while bitcoin fell 1.9% to about $81,800^[5].

A-shares open lower and central bank's FX stance

On the first trading day of October, major A-share indices fell, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.79% at 3,811.90, the Shenzhen Component down 2.07% at 12,620.90, the ChiNext down 3.15% at 3,036.66, and the STAR 50 down nearly 5%; optical chip stocks plunged, with ChangXin Technology down more than 7%; shipping, oil and gas, petrochemicals, banking, coal, power and steel sectors all strengthened collectively, with ICBC and Bank of China hitting new highs, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell more than 2%^[3]. Decliners outnumbered gainers, with nearly 3,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing markets in the red; today's turnover was 1.69 trillion yuan, with Shanghai and Shenzhen combined turnover at 1.68 trillion yuan, nearly 250 billion yuan more than the previous trading day^[3]. China's central bank clarified its stance on the RMB exchange rate: it does not set a target for the RMB exchange rate and focuses on preventing short-term disruptive overshooting; China implements a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and adjusted with reference to a basket of currencies, insists on letting the market play a decisive role in exchange rate formation, has no need and no intention to gain trade competitive advantage through currency depreciation, and never engages in competitive devaluation^[3]. On consumption data, CICC Research interpreted National Day holiday data as showing steady consumption with marginal improvement: business district revenue during the National Day holiday rose 5.3% year-on-year, but box office for the National Day slate in the first six days was only 1.05 billion yuan, down 31.6% year-on-year; Guolian Minsheng Macro said scenic area ticket bookings rose nearly 30%, revenue at key business districts rose 5.3%, box office plunged 38.1% year-on-year, and total foot traffic rose only 0.8%, leaving per capita consumption elasticity still insufficient^[3].

Apple October products: first touchscreen MacBook and smart home push

Apple is reported to be planning a new product launch event around October 27, unveiling its first touchscreen MacBook and a new iPad mini, and updating the 14-inch MacBook Pro and iMac with M6 chips^[4]. Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, said the launch formats include an online video presentation and an in-person media event, aimed mainly at creative professionals working in video production, photo editing and music production^[4]. The new MacBook Pro has internal codenames K114 and K116, and is expected to be thinner and lighter than existing products, use an OLED screen, and introduce the Dynamic Island screen interaction familiar to iPhone users; the 14-inch entry-level MacBook Pro and iMac with M6 chips have internal codenames J804 and J833, with exterior designs expected to be basically the same as existing models and main upgrades concentrated in the chip^[4]. The new iPad mini is expected to feature an OLED screen and adjust the position of the video conferencing camera, moving it to the side of the screen when used in landscape orientation, while upgrading the speaker system^[4]. Apple also plans to hold another event around October 13 to unveil new products and strategic moves in smart home, including its first smart home hub with a display, a new HomePod mini and an upgraded Apple TV set-top box, all centered on the Siri AI assistant, and introduce accessory products from companies such as LG Electronics and Schneider Electric^[4]. Apple closed up 1.11% on Thursday; after CEO John Ternus took the company's top management role last month, he is seeking to push Apple into new markets and expand related services revenue^[4].

Common trends and what to watch

Overall, the AI narrative is shifting from compute scarcity to a dual test of returns and financing costs: OpenAI's revenue miss, Firmus's failed IPO, and Oracle's high-cost trucked gas to keep deliveries on schedule all point to tension between capex and cash flow; at the same time, oil prices are elevated due to the Middle East situation, US Treasury yields, though off their highs, remain high, and the US deficit and interest expense continue to swell, meaning the cost of capital is unlikely to fall quickly. Going forward, watch: the US fiscal path after the midterm elections, pricing progress for data center projects queuing to go public (DayOne, Switch, Vantage, CyrusOne and others), product launches from Apple's two October events, and sentiment recovery in the A-share optical chip sector amid regulatory and price-cut rumors.