Global Copper Inventories Tighten as Deutsche Bank Turns Bullish; Gold Posts Third-Biggest One-Day Drop This Year

Copper: Inventories Keep Tightening; Deutsche Bank Sees Copper at $22,050 in Q2 2027

As global available copper inventories fall to unprecedented lows, Deutsche Bank believes the copper market is shifting from a demand-driven dynamic to a supply liquidity crisis. Deutsche Bank analyst Daniel Ghali expects copper prices to rise to $22,050 per ton in Q2 2027, more than 50% above Monday's London Metal Exchange (LME) price of $14,458.50; the bank expects copper to average $20,900 per ton in 2027 and fall to an average of $18,500 in 2028.^[1]

On Monday, the LME copper price fell 1.33% to $14,428.50 per ton.^[1]

Deutsche Bank estimates that if current trends continue, by the end of this year, copper inventories held by the United States and major Asian consumer markets combined could account for 71% of total global supply, further squeezing the physical resources available to other regions. Ghali further warned that if the stockpiling trend continues, by the end of 2028, freely circulating inventories will be close to zero.^[1]

Gold: Surging Real Rates and Pre-Holiday Liquidation in China Apply Dual Pressure

Gold prices fell to about $4,150/oz on Tuesday, a single-day drop of 3.2%, the third-largest one-day decline so far this year. Earlier, during Asian trading hours, gold broke below the key support level of $4,230, triggering technical selling and then falling further below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, retreating to near August lows. Silver fell even more sharply, down about 5% on the day.^[2]

The core driver of this gold selloff was the rapid climb in U.S. real interest rates. According to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, the U.S. 10-year real yield has risen to about 2.85%, an 18-year high, while the short-term interest rate market has now priced in three more Federal Reserve rate hikes of 25 basis points each before April next year.^[2]

China was another important driver of the gold decline. According to Goldman Sachs data, after the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened that day, long positions were liquidated in a concentrated manner, with total contract open interest falling by about 11,000 lots, or about 2.6%. SHFE will be closed from October 1 to 7 for the National Day Golden Week holiday.^[2]

AstraZeneca Takes $2 Billion Stake in Summit; Ivonescimab OS Data Receive Key Validation

AstraZeneca will subscribe to Summit preferred shares at a price equivalent to $18.36 per common share, an 18.6% premium to Summit's Monday closing price of $15.48, with the deal expected to close this week. After the news was announced, Summit's stock rose more than 18% in after-hours trading. The two parties also announced they will jointly conduct a series of clinical trials combining ivonescimab with AstraZeneca's cancer therapies, and have signed a preliminary agreement to explore combination regimens of ivonescimab with multiple AstraZeneca antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs).^[3]

The core asset in this transaction is ivonescimab, developed by Akeso and licensed to Summit in 2022 for a potential total of up to $5 billion—the world's first PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody. According to a previous Economic Observer report, on September 15, Akeso released overall survival (OS) data from the HARMONi-2 clinical trial at the World Conference on Lung Cancer (WCLC): as of August 20, 2026, with a median follow-up of 36 months, ivonescimab's median OS was 30.8 months, versus 22.6 months for 'Keytruda'; ivonescimab reduced the risk of death by 27%, reaching pre-specified statistical significance.^[3]

Meta Launches Enterprise AI Unit; Anthropic Files IPO Prospectus

Meta announced on Monday that it will establish a new business unit, 'Meta Enterprise Platform,' to provide AI tools and services to enterprise customers. The unit will be led by current MongoDB CEO Chirantan 'CJ' Desai, who was recruited from MongoDB and will report directly to Zuckerberg. After the news was announced, Meta's stock fell 4% that day, while MongoDB's stock plunged 18% on news of Desai's departure. MongoDB then announced that former CEO Dev Ittycheria would return as interim president and CEO, and it launched a search for a permanent CEO.^[6]

Anthropic disclosed its IPO prospectus. The filing shows that in 2025 Anthropic's revenue grew 12-fold to nearly $4.6 billion, while its operating loss widened from $2.98 billion in 2024 to $8.06 billion. The company plans to invest $518 billion over the next several years in cloud computing, compute, and infrastructure, and its seven co-founders will hold 50.1% of voting power on key matters through a new entity called 'Founder LLC.'^[5]

Anthropic's IPO targets a valuation of more than $2 trillion, while as recently as May this year the company's own valuation forecast was still $965 billion. As of December 31, 2025, the company held $20.28 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments.^[5]

Instinct Completes $1 Billion Series C at $10 Billion Valuation

On September 28, San Francisco-based startup Instinct announced it had completed a $1 billion Series C funding round, co-led by Sequoia Capital, Benchmark Capital, and Coatue, at a valuation of $10 billion. The company, founded only about a year ago and with its product still in invite-only beta, currently has annual transaction volume on its platform exceeding $1 billion, with day-over-day user growth holding at about 10% and zero marketing spend.^[4]

Noah Shinn revealed in an interview that the company's annual transaction volume has approached and surpassed $1 billion, 50% of which comes from travel.^[4]