TSMC Hits Intraday Record $487.44; Musk Confirms Preliminary Terafab Talks; 30-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 5.70%

TSMC Hits Intraday Record $487.44; Musk Confirms Preliminary Terafab Talks

**The market data cited in this article are as of Monday, October 5, U.S. Eastern Time, and come from the Wallstreetcn morning briefing published on October 6, 2026.**

TSMC Hits Record High; Estimated Probability of Terafab Cooperation Exceeds 80%

The potential cooperation between TSMC and Musk's Terafab super wafer fab has become one of the most closely watched deals in the semiconductor industry. On Monday, TSMC's U.S. shares (TSM) touched an intraday record high of $487.44 and closed up about 2.8% at $485.80, a record closing high, with its market capitalization touching about $2.5 trillion for the first time in history and year-to-date gains exceeding 60%^[1].

The driver behind the stock's rise came from Musk himself. He personally confirmed on social media platform X that he and TSMC are in preliminary discussions over the Terafab project, saying it was 'just talks, but maybe something will come of it'; TSMC officially maintained its usual low profile and made no public response^[1]. According to Taiwanese tech media Digitimes, industry insiders estimate the probability of cooperation between TSMC and Terafab has exceeded 80%, with the core logic being that TSMC's wafer fab expansion plan in Texas, United States, highly overlaps with Terafab's site selection^[1].

Mizuho Securities trading desk analyst Jordan Klein noted in a client report that TSMC is exploring establishing a new U.S. manufacturing hub in Texas, 'this is likely part of that project, and Musk will become an anchor customer,' and believes the Terafab project may ultimately be shared or split between TSMC and Intel^[1]. Wedbush Securities analyst Matt Bryson reiterated an 'Outperform' rating on TSMC after the news was announced^[1].

For Intel, the impact is most direct: the company joined Terafab as a named partner in April this year, and its shares closed down about 2.6% on Monday, falling for a third straight trading day^[1].

Macro: U.S. Services Price Index Hits Four-Year High; 30-Year Treasury Yield Approaches 6% Threshold

The U.S. September ISM services PMI fell to 54.9, but the prices index climbed to 74.0, a four-year high, as services expansion slowed while cost pressures picked up^[2]. On Monday, the 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.70%, the highest since 2002. According to Bloomberg analysis, if the yield rises to around 6%, the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) security for long-term Treasury futures may switch from the current Treasury maturing in 2045 to one maturing in 2050; BNP Paribas strategists noted in a report that asset managers selling Treasury futures in response to the CTD switch 'may exacerbate the rise in long-end yields'^[6]. CFTC data show that in the week ended September 29, asset managers cut their net long positions in ultra-long Treasury futures by nearly 100,000 contracts^[6].

U.S. Stocks, Hong Kong Stocks and Global Markets

All three major U.S. indexes rose: the Nasdaq gained 1.05% to 27,477.31, a record closing high; the S&P 500 rose 0.66% to 7,773.95; and the Dow rose 0.18% to 51,267.90, with AI chip stocks and Chinese concept stocks broadly higher^[2]. In Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.28% to 24,040.34, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.62% to 4,183.68, and the China Enterprises Index rose 0.26% to 8,051.67^[2]; a separate Hong Kong market open flash showed the Hang Seng Index up 1%, the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.02%, Alibaba up 2.94%, and Baidu Group and Meituan up nearly 2%^[3]. A-shares were closed for the National Day holiday, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets suspended for a sixth consecutive trading day and set to resume trading on October 8^[2].

In Europe, the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.36% to 633.62, France's CAC 40 bucked the trend and fell 0.80% to 7,834.10, hitting a six-month low, Germany's DAX rose 0.09%, and the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.34%; the euro fell to a 17-month low against the dollar^[2]. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 2.40% to 69,946.86, and Taiwan's weighted index rose 2.55% to 49,712.04^[2]. SpaceX closed up 7.6%, at its highest since June, helping Musk 'regain' his trillionaire title^[2].

In crude oil, the WTI November contract fell 1.99% to 89.30^[2]. Saudi Aramco cut its November crude oil selling price to Asia to a six-year low, a $5 discount to the benchmark, while raising prices for European buyers by $3^[2].

AI Chip Financing: $60 Billion Deal Launches Syndication

A $60 billion AI chip financing is said to have entered syndication, with Bank of America, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley beginning to transfer part of the debt to other banks. About $42 billion in senior secured loans guaranteed by Broadcom have already launched syndication, while another $18 billion in subordinated debt without Broadcom's guarantee will be introduced later, and Blackstone has committed to subscribe to about $9 billion of it^[5]. The funds will support Anthropic's leasing of Google TPU chips, corresponding to its 2027 chip orders, with lease payments only beginning after chip delivery^[5].

Red Sea Tensions Escalate: Houthis Strike Saudi Energy Facilities

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said in a statement on the 4th local time that the group launched missile and drone attacks on two Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Khurais; the group also said late on the 5th that it carried out three rounds of military operations, attacking targets including Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport, the Rabigh Aramco refinery and Abha Airport^[4]. Rashad al-Alimi, chairman of Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council, announced on the 4th that after weeks of military mobilization, the Yemeni government had officially launched a large-scale military operation^[4]. Yemeni government forces announced they had retaken the strategic Red Sea port of Mokha; the Houthis denied losing it and said fighting was still ongoing, with clear discrepancies between the two sides' accounts that still await independent verification^[4]. Separately, according to a news roundup, Yemeni government forces announced they had retaken strategic positions around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with the Saudi-led multinational coalition providing full combat support, while the Houthis denied losing them^[2].

Other Company News

Huawei and Qualcomm reached a multi-year patent cross-license covering multiple areas including 5G, computing, AI and networking, and Qualcomm will also acquire some of Huawei's U.S. patents^[2]. Schneider Electric announced a $22.6 billion acquisition of U.S. industrial software company PTC, a premium of more than 42%, the largest acquisition in the company's history, while its own shares closed down nearly 10%^[2]. In addition, Meta and Microsoft are seeking to reduce employees' reliance on Claude; the number of internal users at Meta has halved, and Microsoft's budget has been cut by one-third^[2].