Gold holds steady below $4,150 as elevated US yields and fading rate-hike odds offset each other

Gold steadies below $4,150

Spot gold (XAU/USD) was little changed in early Asian trading on Tuesday, hovering around $4,140 an ounce, below the $4,150 level ^[1]. A stronger US Dollar and elevated US Treasury yields pressured the metal, but fading expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month offset part of the downside ^[1].

Macro drivers: yields and rate-hike expectations

US Treasury yields edged up at the start of the week, with 30-year and 10-year yields reaching multi-year highs as inflation expectations rose. A US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey showed services activity slowing while input prices surged ^[4].

On the rate-hike front, reports indicate the odds of an October Fed hike have fallen from about two in three in late September to roughly one in five; over the same period, GBP/USD has not left its range since September 24, trading just above 1.3200 ^[3]. Those remarks belong to the same reporting period as the Treasury yield moves and are presented here as background.

FX cross-currents

AUD/USD traded at 0.6972, up 0.37%, marking a second straight day of gains even as rising Treasury yields underpinned the US Dollar ^[5]. NZD/USD edged higher after hitting a fresh low, trading above 0.5600 and back near its November 2025 trough; New Zealand business confidence jumped and fewer firms raised prices ^[6].

Mining news (non-gold)

Westwin Elements plans to build a $502 million nickel refinery in Mississippi, having completed a bankable feasibility study for the Natchez site ^[2]. The project involves nickel rather than gold and is listed here only as a mining investment development.

What to watch

This batch of evidence does not include central bank gold-buying data, so no judgment is made on official-sector demand. Ahead, the focus is on whether US Treasury yields can hold at multi-year highs and whether Fed rate-hike expectations continue to cool.